Bayesian outlier detection in Capital Asset Pricing Model

We propose a novel Bayesian optimisation procedure for outlier detection in the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We use a parametric product partition model to robustly estimate the systematic risk of an asset. We assume that the returns follow independent normal distributions and we impose a partition structure on the parameters of interest. The partition structure imposed on the parameters induces a corresponding clustering of the returns. We identify via an optimisation procedure the partition that best separates standard observations from the atypical ones. The methodology is illustrated with reference to a real data set, for which we also provide a microeconomic interpretation of the detected outliers

A Copula-VAR-X Approach for Industrial Production Modelling and Forecasting

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decades and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core EMU countries and we provide evidence that the copula-VAR model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.Forecasting, Industrial Production, Copulas, VAR models.

Reply: Sperm Retrieval Rates by micro-TESE Versus Conventional TESE in Men With Non-Obstructive Azoospermia-The Assumption of Independence in Effects Sizes Might Lead to Misleading Conclusions

[No abstract available

Low sodium and tolvaptan have opposite effects in human small cell lung cancer cells.

Abstract Purpose Hyponatraemia is frequently observed in cancer patients and can be due to the syndrome of inappropriate anti-diuresis (SIAD), related to ectopic vasopressin secretion, particularly in small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Hyponatraemia is associated with a worse outcome in cancer patients. The vasopressin receptor antagonist tolvaptan effectively corrects hyponatraemia secondary to SIAD and there is in vitro evidence that it has also an antiproliferative effect in cancer cells. The purpose of this study was i) to analyse the effect of low serum sodium concentrations ([Na+]) in SCLC cells and ii) to determine whether tolvaptan counteracts tumor progression. Methods We evaluated cell proliferation, cell cycle, apoptosis, oxidative stress, invasivity in low [Na+] as well as after exposure to tolvaptan. We also analysed the intracellular signalling pathways involved. Results In reduced [Na+] cell proliferation was significantly increased compared to normal [Na+] and cells were mostly distributed in the G2/M phase. Apoptosis appeared reduced. In addition, the ability to cross matrigel-coated membranes markedly increased. As observed in other cancer cell models, the expression of the heme-oxigenase-1 gene was increased. Finally, we found that in cells cultured in low [Na+] the RhoA/ROCK1/2 pathway, which is involved in the regulation of actin cytoskeleton, was activated. On the other hand, we found that tolvaptan effectively inhibited cell proliferation, anchorage-independent growth, invasivity and promoted apoptosis. Accordingly, the RhoA/ROCK-1/2 pathway was inhibited. Conclusions These findings demonstrate for the first time that low [Na+] favours tumor progression in SCLC cells, whereas tolvaptan effectively inhibits cell proliferation, survival and invasivity